Insights

Private Real Estate Benchmark: Q2 2025 NFI-ODCE Index Insights

Written by The Accordant Team | Sep 30, 2025 4:28:05 PM

 

The NFI-ODCE Index, the leading benchmark for U.S. core private real estate performance, offers one of the clearest signals of how high-quality real estate is performing, tracking 25 of the largest open-end diversified core funds in the country.

Accordant Investments’ CIO Garrett Zdolshek joined Geoffrey Dohrmann, CEO of Institutional Real Estate Inc. (IREI), to share insights on this important benchmark and the evolving landscape for private real estate. The discussion highlighted where the market stands today, the factors driving performance, and what advisers should watch as they move through 2025.

Watch the complete Q2 2025 NFI-ODCE Market Update with Garrett Zdolshek, CIO of Accordant Investments, and Geoffrey Dohrmann, CEO of Institutional Real Estate, Inc., or continue below for a discussion of key themes and highlights.


The Q2 2025 NFI-ODCE Index results show a market that’s stabilizing after a period of steep declines. Liquidity is improving, income remains steady, and sector performance is diverging in ways that matter for future allocations. Here’s what the latest private real estate market update revealed — and why it matters.

Benchmark Performance: From Sector Bets to Asset Selection

For the past five years, real estate investing was a game of sector bets: overweight industrial, underweight office, and the relative performance spoke for itself. That dynamic has shifted. In today’s environment, the NFI-ODCE Index shows that broad sector positioning is less decisive. The real differentiators are at the asset level — how properties are managed, where income growth is coming from, and which individual assets can withstand market pressures.

  • Asset selection and income growth are becoming more important than sector overweights.
  • Write-downs are increasingly tied to specific properties, not just sectors.

Why it matters: The shift means that long-term returns will depend less on simply picking the “right sector” and more on owning high-quality assets in the best locations — and managing them effectively.

Liquidity: Pressures Are Easing

Liquidity has dominated headlines in private real estate since redemption queues swelled in 2022. For many investors, it became the single biggest risk factor in open-end funds. But the Q2 update shows that the worst appears to be behind us. Redemption queues are shrinking, liquidity windows are reopening, and funds within the NFI-ODCE Index are showing the kind of resilience that once defined the post-GFC recovery.

  • Liquidity pressures are easing, not worsening. Redemption queues in NFI-ODCE funds peaked near 20% of NAV but have since declined to around 12%, with some funds fully clearing their queues.
  • By design, NFI-ODCE funds accept quarterly inflows and redemptions, but temporary limits during market stress are not unusual.
  • Contrary to what we see with core funds like those of the NFI-ODCE Index, core-plus funds, which often use higher leverage and have less transparency, continue to face greater liquidity challenges.
  • The secondary market remains active, with pricing highly dependent on fund quality and leverage.

Why it matters: Improving liquidity signals resilience in core private real estate, supporting stronger NFI-ODCE Index performance ahead. 

Sector Performance: Diverging Paths

Performance across property sectors has splintered. Office remains deeply discounted, industrial is normalizing, and alternatives like data centers are emerging as powerful drivers of returns. For advisers, this divergence means sector narratives must be more nuanced: one-size-fits-all assumptions no longer work.

  • Office: Values have fallen over 40% from peak to trough, but the pace of declines is slowing. Investor sentiment is gradually shifting from “never” to “maybe,” with selective opportunities beginning to draw interest from buyers.
  • Industrial: After several years of outsized gains, industrial performance is settling back toward long-term historical averages. The sector remains healthy but is no longer delivering the extraordinary growth of recent years.
  • Multifamily: Multifamily continues to be a cornerstone of returns within the ODCE benchmark. Strong housing demand and ongoing affordability pressures are providing support, even as new supply creates short-term absorption challenges in some markets.
  • Retail: Once considered structurally challenged, retail is showing surprising resilience. High-quality shopping centers and durable malls are outperforming expectations, proving that well-located assets remain relevant in today’s market. Retail was the best performing sector over the past two years.
  • Alternatives: Sectors such as data centers and manufactured housing are emerging as standout performers. Data centers, in particular, delivered a +23% YoY return, reflecting the surge in demand for digital infrastructure. Life sciences has faced significant headwinds similar to traditional office but remains a small portion of the ODCE Index. Investors that overweight the sectors are facing significant challenges going forward as the outlook is not improving.

Why it matters: The market is no longer moving in lockstep. Advisers who understand sector dynamics can better anticipate where returns will be generated and where risks remain.

Market Fundamentals

Beneath the headlines, core real estate fundamentals are holding firm. Cap rates have steadied, occupancy remains high in most sectors, and NOI growth is trending in line with long-term averages. Combined with a softer inflation outlook, these fundamentals suggest the market is stabilizing, not sliding into further distress.

  • Cap rates are largely flat quarter-over-quarter. While reported rates may lag, stabilized levels are likely higher.
  • NOI growth is expected to trend around 3–4% annually, providing a supportive backdrop for valuations.
  • Occupancy remains high in industrial (~96%), though slightly below its 98–99% peaks. Office occupancy is stabilizing in select markets such as NYC.
  • Inflation continues to trend lower overall, while Fed policy shifts have widened spreads between Treasuries, Fed funds, and cap rates.

Why it matters: Stable fundamentals plus moderating inflation give the NFI-ODCE Index a foundation for steady performance heading into 2026. 

Debt and Leverage in NFI-ODCE Index Funds

One of the strengths of underlying NFI-ODCE funds has always been their conservative use of leverage. Q2 results confirm that this discipline is paying off. With modest loan-to-value ratios and mostly fixed-rate debt, NFI-ODCE portfolios are insulated from the debt pressures weighing on more aggressive strategies.

  • Average loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are around 27%, with roughly 75% of debt fixed-rate.
  • Only ~25% of exposure is floating-rate debt, which has been manageable given low LTVs.
  • Valuation swings, more than rising debt costs, are the main factor influencing LTV fluctuations.

Why it matters: Conservative leverage is why NFI-ODCE Index funds are weathering this rate environment better than higher-risk strategies — a key point when evaluating resilience for client portfolios.

Capital Flows and Transactions in Core Private Real Estate

Transactions have slowed from pre-2022 levels, but the underlying funds of the NFI-ODCE Index continue to see steady deal activity. Much of it is concentrated in office dispositions, while new capital is flowing toward industrial, alternatives, and even infrastructure. These flows are important signals for where institutions see long-term value emerging.

  • Q4 2024 was relatively strong, Q1 2025 slowed due to tariff concerns, and Q2 is showing signs of modest rebound.
  • Roughly 50% of recent dispositions have been office assets, with sales prices averaging close to NAV (though widely varied by property quality).
  • Buyers of office assets now include family offices, REITs, and lenders taking ownership through foreclosure or disposition.
  • Capital continues to flow into industrial and alternative sectors, with some shift toward core infrastructure as an additional diversifier.

Why it matters: Capital is moving away from challenged sectors and into areas of strength like industrial, alternatives, and infrastructure. Advisors who track these shifts can align client portfolios with where demand and resilience is building.

Multifamily Outlook

Few sectors are as central to the underlying NFI-ODCE Index portfolios as multifamily. Despite near-term supply pressures, it remains one of the most resilient categories, underpinned by affordability challenges in the housing market and consistent long-term demand from renters priced out of ownership.

  • Near-term: absorption challenges from new supply could create short-term headwinds.
  • Long-term: strong demand persists, supported by the affordability gap between renting and owning.

Why it matters: Multifamily continues to be a cornerstone of underlying NFI-ODCE fund portfolios, providing stability in both up and down markets.

Key Takeaways

  • Liquidity is improving: NFI-ODCE redemption queues are shrinking, with some funds fully cleared.
  • Performance drivers are shifting: Asset quality and income growth matter more than sector allocations.
  • Valuations are stabilizing: Office remains challenged, but the outlook has shifted to no longer be viewed as “untouchable.”
  • Alternatives are gaining traction: Data centers and manufactured housing are strong performers, while multifamily continues to anchor returns.
  • Investor flows are adapting: Institutions are reallocating toward industrial, alternatives, and infrastructure.

Final Thought: Why the NFI-ODCE Index Matters Now

The NFI-ODCE Index is a roadmap for where capital, valuations, and opportunities in core private real estate are heading. For advisers, understanding the NFI-ODCE Index is like understanding the S&P 500 of private real estate: it provides the essential context to anticipate client questions, explain market shifts, and position portfolios for what’s next.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Accordant Investments LLC (“Accordant”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. For more information about our services and disclosures, please visit our website at www.accordantinvestments.com. This content does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security or any other product or service managed by Accordant.

The NCREIF Fund Index – Open-End Diversified Core Equity ("NFI-ODCE") is a capitalization-weighted, gross-of-fees, time-weighted return index of open-end core real estate funds with at least 95% of their assets invested in U.S. operating properties and no more than 40% leverage. The ODCE Index is compiled by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) and is reported quarterly. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. 

This information is educational in nature and does not constitute a financial promotion, investment advice or an inducement or incitement to participate in any product, offering or investment. Accordant is not adopting, making a recommendation for or endorsing any investment strategy or particular security or property mentioned in this article. All opinions are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due diligence before participating in any investment. All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. Accordant Investments, LLC (“Accordant”) cannot guarantee that the information herein is accurate, complete or timely. 

Past Performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, you should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to corresponding past performance levels. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors, or markets identified and described in this content were or will be profitable. Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Accordant has not made any representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of any of the information contained herein (including but not limited to information obtained from third parties), and they expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability, therefore Accordant does not have any responsibility to update or correct any of the information provided in this article. 

All real estate investments have the potential for value loss during the life of the investment and the sponsor can make no assurances that any investment will achieve its objectives, goals, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.